Healthcare Capacity, Health Expenditure, and Civil Society as Predictors of COVID-19 Case Fatalities: A Global Analysis

Background: The rapid growth in cases of COVID-19 has challenged national healthcare capacity, testing systems at an advanced ICU, and public health infrastructure level. This global study evaluates the association between multi-factorial healthcare capacity and case fatality of COVID-19 patients by adjusting for demographic, health expenditure, population density, and prior burden of non-communicable disease. It also explores the impact of government relationships with civil society as a predictor of infection and mortality rates. Methods: Data were extracted from the Johns Hopkins University database, World Bank records and the National Civic Space Ratings 2020 database. This study used data from 86 countries which had at least 1,000 confirmed cases on 30th April 2020. Negative binomial regression model was used to assess the association between case fatality (a ratio of total number of confirmed deaths to total number of confirmed cases) and healthcare capacity index adjusting for other covariates. Findings: Regression analysis shows that greater healthcare capacity was related to lesser case-fatality [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.5811; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4727–0.7184; p < 0.001] with every additional unit increase in the healthcare capacity index associated with a 42% decrease in the case fatality. Health expenditure and civil society variables did not reach statistical significance but were positively associated with case fatalities. Interpretation: Based on preliminary data, this research suggests that building effective multidimensional healthcare capacity is the most promising means to mitigate future case fatalities. The data also suggests that government's ability to implement public health measures to a degree determines mortality outcomes

Residential area sociodemographic and breast cancer screening venue location built environmental features associated with women’s use of closest venue in greater Sydney, Australia

Understanding environmental predictors of women’s use of closest breast screening venue versus other site(s) may assist optimal venue placement. This study assessed relationships between residential-area sociodemographic measures, venue location features, and women’s use of closest versus other venues. Data of 320,672 Greater Sydney screening attendees were spatially joined to residential state suburbs (SSCs) (n = 799). SSC-level sociodemographic measures included proportions of: women speaking English at home; university-educated; full-time employed; and dwellings with motor-vehicles. A geographic information system identified each woman’s closest venue to home, and venue co-location with bus-stop, train-station, hospital, general practitioner, and shop(s). Multilevel logistic models estimated associations between environmental measures and closest venue attendance. Attendance at closest venue was 59.4%. Closest venue attendance was positively associated with SSC-level women speaking English but inversely associated with SSC-level women university-educated, full-time employed, and dwellings with motor-vehicles. Mobile venue co-location with general practitioner and shop was positively, but co-location with bus-stop and hospital was inversely associated with attendance. Attendance was positively associated with fixed venue co-location with train-station and hospital but inversely associated with venue co-location with bus-stop, general practitioner, and shop. Program planners should consider these features when optimising service locations to enhance utilisation. Some counterintuitive results necessitate additional investigation

Impact of teachers training on HIV/AIDS education program among secondary school students in Bangladesh: A cross-sectional survey

Background In 2007, the Government of Bangladesh incorporated a chapter on HIV/AIDS into the national curriculum for an HIV-prevention program for school students. For the efficient dissemination of knowledge, an intervention was designed to train the teachers and equip them to educate on the topic of HIV/AIDS. The present study intended to understand the impact of this intervention by assessing the knowledge, attitudes and behaviours related to HIV/AIDS, among the targeted students. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted with the students at randomly selected schools from two adjacent districts. Considering exposure to intervention, one district was assigned for intervention and the other as a control. In total, 1,381 students, aged 13–18 years (or above) were interviewed, 675 from the control areas and 706 from the intervention areas. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed on the collected data. Results A significantly higher proportion (p<0.001) of students in the intervention areas attended HIV/AIDS classes, demonstrated better knowledge and fewer misconceptions regarding the transmission and prevention of HIV. The same was derived regarding their attitude towards people living with HIV, as a higher proportion (p<0.001) responded positively, compared to the control groups of the study. Additionally, multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that students in intervention area were more likely to have good knowledge on HIV transmission (OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.74–4.22) and prevention (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.41–3.26) compared to the students in the control areas. Conclusions The training programme needs to be scaled up, since it is likely to have an impact among students; we have witnessed that the interventions particularly helped increase HIV/AIDS knowledge among students and positively change the students’ attitudes towards HIV/AIDS.The study was funded by Save the Children-USA (grant no. BAN-202-G01-H00)

Evaluation of graft uptake in underlay myringoplasty using dry and wet temporalis fascia graft

Chronic otitis media (COM) is a vital cause of deafness worldwide. Myringoplasty is one of the best treatment options for COM (inactive mucosal variety). Temporalis Fascia is the most favored grafting material among various autografts, which can be used as dry or wet depending upon the Surgeon's choice. The main focus of this study is to compare the graft uptake rate by using dry and wet temporalis fascia by underlay technique. This cross-sectional comparative study was directed from January 2018 to June 2019 at the Department of Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery of BSMMU, Dhaka. All consecutive cases of COM (inactive mucosal) who underwent surgery were randomly assigned either into the dry (Group-A) or wet temporalis fascia group (Group-B). At 12 weeks follow-up, the density of graft failure (4.4% vs. 8.8%) and retraction pocket (0% vs. 2.2%) were higher in the wet procedure. However anterior blunting (2.2% vs. 2.2%) were the same in both procedures, and medialization (2.2% vs. 0%) were more in the dry procedure. Air Bone Gap (ABG) improved significantly in both groups following operation but reduced in Group-A more significantly than Group-B. On the other hand, there was no remarkable difference in successful graft uptake between the groups (Dry group-91.12% vs. wet group-84.44%, p>0.05). No graft material is superior to others in terms of graft uptake. BSMMU J 2022; 15(2): 84-8

Machine Learning and Meta-Analysis Approach to Identify Patient Comorbidities and Symptoms that Increased Risk of Mortality in COVID-19

Background: Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected have pre-existing conditions that may interact with COVID-19 to increase symptom severity and mortality risk. COVID-19 patient comorbidities are likely to be informative about individual risk of severe illness and mortality. Accurately determining how comorbidities are associated with severe symptoms and mortality would thus greatly assist in COVID-19 care planning and provision. Methods: To assess the interaction of patient comorbidities with COVID-19 severity and mortality we performed a meta-analysis of the published global literature, and machine learning predictive analysis using an aggregated COVID-19 global dataset. Results: Our meta-analysis identified chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cerebrovascular disease (CEVD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes, malignancy, and hypertension as most significantly associated with COVID-19 severity in the current published literature. Machine learning classification using novel aggregated cohort data similarly found COPD, CVD, CKD, type 2 diabetes, malignancy and hypertension, as well as asthma, as the most significant features for classifying those deceased versus those who survived COVID-19. While age and gender were the most significant predictor of mortality, in terms of symptom-comorbidity combinations, it was observed that Pneumonia-Hypertension, Pneumonia-Diabetes and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)-Hypertension showed the most significant effects on COVID-19 mortality. Conclusions: These results highlight patient cohorts most at risk of COVID-19 related severe morbidity and mortality which have implications for prioritization of hospital resources

A comprehensive analysis on child mortality and its determinants in Bangladesh using frailty models

Abstract Background Bangladesh has experienced a significant reduction of child mortality over the past decades which helped achieve the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target. But the mortality among under-5 aged children is still relatively high and it needs a substantial effort to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target and decelerate the current rate of under-5 mortality. At this stage, it is hence important to explore the trend and determinants of under-5 mortality in order to reduce the vulnerability of child’s survival. The aim of this study is to explore the trends and identify the factors associated with mortality in children aged less than 5 years in Bangladesh. Methods Data from three repeatedly cross-sectional Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHSs) for the year 2007, 2011 and 2014 were used. A stratified two-stage sampling method was used to collect information on child and maternal health in these surveys. Cox’s proportional hazards models with community and mother level random effects (or frailty models) were fitted to identify the associated factors with under-five mortality. Results Our study reveals that urban-rural disparity in child mortality has decreased over the time. The frailty models revealed that the combined effect of birth order and preceding birth interval length, sex of the child, maternal age at birth, mother’s working status, parental education were the important determinants associated with risk of child mortality. The risk of mortality also varied across divisions with Sylhet division being the most vulnerable one. Moreover, significant and sizable frailty effects were found which indicates that the estimations of the unmeasured and unobserved mother and community level factors on the risk of death were substantively important. Conclusion Our study suggests that community-based educational programs and public health interventions focused on birth spacing may turn out to be the most effective. Moreover, unobserved community and familial effects need to be considered along with significant programmable determinants while planning for the child survival program